Maybe.

Probably.

The Des Moines Register Poll shows Trump at 28%, Cruz 23% and Rubio 15%.  What it doesn’t factor in is the fact that nearly HALF of Iowa voters say they could still change their mind, or haven’t made a final choice yet.  That is astounding.  Carson’s 10% share has been consistently shrinking, which demonstrates the possibility that his supporters could easily go to someone else.  Another factor is that Rand Paul is likely to do better than most prognosticators expect.

Cruz, by all accounts, has THE BEST ground game in Iowa.  In Iowa, it’s all about ground game.

Still, the real story is what happens to the thin support shown to the other candidates.  The “second choice” will kick in sometime during caucus night.  Cruz and Rubio are the first “second choice” for most voters.  Cruz is the easy favorite to win that contest.  Trump is almost no one’s “second choice”.  As the evening wears on, the “second choice” will be very significant in determining Iowa’s FIRST choice.

Right now, the Register shows the other candidates with small numbers.  Paul 5%, Christie 3% with the remaining 10% split equally (2% each) between the also-rans.  Voters, with the exception of Paul supporters, remain persuadable.  Their “second choice” could determine the final outcome.

Cruz needs much less of the “second choice” to win.  Iowa caucuses present a great opportunity for the candidate who wins the “second choice” contest to become the first choice.  Hence, my prediction:

Cruz wins Iowa!

***Gordon Howie is an author and CEO of Life and Liberty Media***

“It’s not about right or left, it’s about Right or Wrong.”

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